Gesh
Planet
Mishap Molly Cordell
Posts: 453
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Post by Gesh on May 14, 2010 16:46:43 GMT -5
I defended myself in order to show that I still was active. If there's one thing I've learned from past rounds, it's that if people think that someone is inactive they tend to vote them out as a win-win vote. Ps: If defending yourself makes you seem suspicious I don't see how this will become more than a "who can keep their mouth shut the longest" competition. Thank you. Yeah, I'd want to defend myself if I got accused as werewolf and I wasn't.
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Post by cooltiger413 on May 14, 2010 17:36:05 GMT -5
Ps: If defending yourself makes you seem suspicious I don't see how this will become more than a "who can keep their mouth shut the longest" competition. Thank you. I ment the way you defended, the words you used. However I read it again it isn't as bad as I first thought it was. However I do still support Gesh's argument.
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Post by Tiffany on May 14, 2010 17:45:21 GMT -5
I'm gonna go with awsomeness122 because...uh...there's really no logic. I'm blindly voting on whoever has the most votes and it was between him and Norwegian (plus, from reading past games, the story doesn't always help with figuring out who the wolves are).
[0] foorganders [0] Tiffany [0] IfEweWantBlood [0] speedyreedy [1] Insane_Zang!!! [0] AkeR [0] cooltiger413 [0] amethyst11ln [0] Benyamin [0] pjpinc123 [0] Ricky [1] Nakor [0] helmet [0] monker59 [4] awsomeness122 [3] Norwegian [0] trey [0] Engesa Green [0] Gesh [0] mrmrmr8
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Post by Insane_Zang on May 14, 2010 17:56:15 GMT -5
[0] foorganders [0] Tiffany [0] IfEweWantBlood [0] speedyreedy [1] Insane_Zang!!! [0] AkeR [0] cooltiger413 [0] amethyst11ln [0] Benyamin [0] pjpinc123 [0] Ricky [1] Nakor [0] helmet [0] monker59 [4] awsomeness122 [4] Norwegian [0] trey [0] Engesa Green [0] Gesh [0] mrmrmr8
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Gesh
Planet
Mishap Molly Cordell
Posts: 453
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Post by Gesh on May 14, 2010 18:01:46 GMT -5
[0] foorganders [0] Tiffany [0] IfEweWantBlood [0] speedyreedy [1] Insane_Zang!!! [0] AkeR [0] cooltiger413 [0] amethyst11ln [0] Benyamin [0] pjpinc123 [0] Ricky [1] Nakor [0] helmet [0] monker59 [4] awsomeness122 [4] Norwegian [0] trey [0] Engesa Green [0] Gesh [0] mrmrmr8 You just had to do that, didn't you? XD
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Post by Insane_Zang on May 14, 2010 18:11:05 GMT -5
Yes
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Post by cooltiger413 on May 14, 2010 18:42:04 GMT -5
Ok, we really have no clue who it is, and right now awesome and norweign have the most votes. So, in order to get a faster lynch, I suggest we use random.org to decide who we will lynch. Norwegin will be 1, and Awesome will be 2. Whoever it hits we lynch. Sound fair to you guys. We don't have to do it, It will just move things along faster.
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Post by Joey on May 14, 2010 18:47:28 GMT -5
Sorry Nakor, but I really did just choose randomly. I will switch vote to Norwegian, because awesomeness was a wolf in past games.
[0] foorganders [0] Tiffany [0] IfEweWantBlood [0] speedyreedy [1] Insane_Zang!!! [0] AkeR [0] cooltiger413 [0] amethyst11ln [0] Benyamin [0] pjpinc123 [0] Ricky [1] Nakor [0] helmet [0] monker59 [4] awsomeness122 [5] Norwegian [0] trey [0] Engesa Green [0] Gesh [0] mrmrmr8
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Gesh
Planet
Mishap Molly Cordell
Posts: 453
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Post by Gesh on May 14, 2010 18:54:49 GMT -5
And then there is the extremely likely possibility that neither one of them is a werewolf.
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Post by Insane_Zang on May 14, 2010 18:58:49 GMT -5
[0] foorganders [0] Tiffany [0] IfEweWantBlood [0] speedyreedy [1] Insane_Zang!!! [0] AkeR [0] cooltiger413 [0] amethyst11ln [0] Benyamin [0] pjpinc123 [0] Ricky [1] Nakor [0] helmet [0] monker59 [4] awsomeness122 [4] Norwegian [0] trey [0] Engesa Green [0] Gesh [0] mrmrmr8
I retract my vote
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Engesa Green once more
Meteor
Once upon a time there was a suggestion that we should all write our names on our profile. I'm Ebbe.
Posts: 89
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Post by Engesa Green once more on May 14, 2010 19:09:13 GMT -5
I removed this post because i forgot to refresh before posting it and so something new happened before it...
Sorry for that
Edit: Because of Norwegians arguments i do not belive he is a werewolf and therefore I retract my vote and put it on Zang who seems to just make it a draw all the time. i think that he might be a werewolf since making it a draw would (in my mind atleast) make us kill both of them and therefore his wolf-pack would be closer to winning.
Please do correct me if I'm wrong
Vote:Insane_Zang!!! [0] foorganders [0] Tiffany [0] IfEweWantBlood [0] speedyreedy [2] Insane_Zang!!! [0] AkeR [0] cooltiger413 [0] amethyst11ln [0] Benyamin [0] pjpinc123 [0] Ricky [1] Nakor [0] helmet [0] monker59 [4] awsomeness122 [3] Norwegian [0] trey [0] Engesa Green [0] Gesh [0] mrmrmr8
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Post by Trey on May 14, 2010 19:17:13 GMT -5
[0] foorganders [0] Tiffany [0] IfEweWantBlood [0] speedyreedy [1] Insane_Zang!!! [0] AkeR [0] cooltiger413 [0] amethyst11ln [0] Benyamin [0] pjpinc123 [0] Ricky [1] Nakor [0] helmet [0] monker59 [5] awsomeness122 [4] Norwegian [0] trey [0] Engesa Green [0] Gesh [0] mrmrmr8
Yeep
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Engesa Green once more
Meteor
Once upon a time there was a suggestion that we should all write our names on our profile. I'm Ebbe.
Posts: 89
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Post by Engesa Green once more on May 14, 2010 19:19:24 GMT -5
And since trey posted here is an updated version:
[0] foorganders [0] Tiffany [0] IfEweWantBlood [0] speedyreedy [2] Insane_Zang!!! [0] AkeR [0] cooltiger413 [0] amethyst11ln [0] Benyamin [0] pjpinc123 [0] Ricky [1] Nakor [0] helmet [0] monker59 [5] awsomeness122 [3] Norwegian [0] trey [0] Engesa Green [0] Gesh [0] mrmrmr8
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Gesh
Planet
Mishap Molly Cordell
Posts: 453
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Post by Gesh on May 14, 2010 19:22:41 GMT -5
I'm confused about Trey's post. He changed all the votes. Still, Engesa Green fixed it, I believe.
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Post by UnfairBear on May 14, 2010 19:41:48 GMT -5
Ok, we really have no clue who it is, and right now awesome and norweign have the most votes. So, in order to get a faster lynch, I suggest we use random.org to decide who we will lynch. Norwegin will be 1, and Awesome will be 2. Whoever it hits we lynch. Sound fair to you guys. We don't have to do it, It will just move things along faster. If there's a draw, both villagers are killed. Unless the elder voted for one of them, in which case their vote counts for two and whoever they voted for is killed. But since you don't have an elder yet, for this round, if there's a draw, both or all villagers die. Also I edited the first post to include this: The elder can be a werewolf but wolves cannot vote for eachother.
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Post by Insane_Zang on May 14, 2010 19:46:08 GMT -5
This is the first round. I think if 2 people are killed, we have a better chance of figuring out who the werewolf is. Instead of having a 1/20 shot, we now have a 1/10 shot that the werewolf will be killed.
[0] foorganders [0] Tiffany [0] IfEweWantBlood [0] speedyreedy [2] Insane_Zang!!! [0] AkeR [0] cooltiger413 [0] amethyst11ln [0] Benyamin [0] pjpinc123 [0] Ricky [1] Nakor [0] helmet [0] monker59 [5] awsomeness122 [4] Norwegian [0] trey [0] Engesa Green [0] Gesh [0] mrmrmr8 Someone vote for Nor please
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Nakor
Star
Non-Prophet
Posts: 991
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Post by Nakor on May 14, 2010 20:22:21 GMT -5
4/20 are werewolves now right? So the odds in one voteout are:
20% werewolf 80% villager
If we vote out two simultaneously:
3.15% Two werewolves -- That is, (4/20)*(3/19) 33.7% One werewolf, one villager -- That is, (4/20)*(16/19)*2 63.2% Two villagers -- That is, (16/20)*(15/19)
Now, if we vote out two consecutively, knowing that two villagers will die in the interim, and that the second vote has two fewer villagers in the tribe...
3.5% Two werewolves, two villagers -- That is, (4/20)*(3/17) 35.3% One werewolf, three villagers -- That is, ((16/20)*(4/17))+((4/20)*(14/17)) 61.2% Four villagers -- That is, (16/20)*(13/17)
That assumes that the two pairs of wolves don't eliminate each other of course... but even so, we know that their odds of eliminating each other are lower than our odds as a group of eliminating them, which means that mathematically Zang has a point. Villagers fare better in draws than wolves do (until the elder comes back into play and it doesn't matter).
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Gesh
Planet
Mishap Molly Cordell
Posts: 453
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Post by Gesh on May 14, 2010 20:22:50 GMT -5
The elder can be a werewolf but wolves cannot vote for eachother. How exactly would that work, if there are two packs of wolves, and neither knows the wolves of the other pack?
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Post by Insane_Zang on May 14, 2010 20:49:06 GMT -5
4/20 are werewolves now right? So the odds in one voteout are: 20% werewolf 80% villager If we vote out two simultaneously: 3.15% Two werewolves -- That is, (4/20)*(3/19) 33.7% One werewolf, one villager -- That is, (4/20)*(16/19)*2 63.2% Two villagers -- That is, (16/20)*(15/19) Now, if we vote out two consecutively, knowing that two villagers will die in the interim, and that the second vote has two fewer villagers in the tribe... 3.5% Two werewolves, two villagers -- That is, (4/20)*(3/17) 35.3% One werewolf, three villagers -- That is, ((16/20)*(4/17))+((4/20)*(14/17)) 61.2% Four villagers -- That is, (16/20)*(13/17) That assumes that the two pairs of wolves don't eliminate each other of course... but even so, we know that their odds of eliminating each other are lower than our odds as a group of eliminating them, which means that mathematically Zang has a point. Villagers fare better in draws than wolves do (until the elder comes back into play and it doesn't matter). What he said, I just don't feel like working out the math. EDIT: Besides, this is round 1, we have no leads. This is our best bet.
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Post by awsomeness122 on May 14, 2010 21:53:20 GMT -5
Okay I know my reasoning for Zang was a little... out there but in the first round that is what you are kind of supposed to do find some random little thing in the story and run with it now I have let other people do that in the other games but that was because a werewolf in 2 out of 3 of them. Now why would they pick me to be a werewolf if I got to be one in a majority of the other games. Now I know that I am not a werewolf but I do not know if Norwegian is so I vote for him so there is a chance a werewolf gets killed. [0] foorganders [0] Tiffany [0] IfEweWantBlood [0] speedyreedy [1] Insane_Zang!!! [0] AkeR [0] cooltiger413 [0] amethyst11ln [0] Benyamin [0] pjpinc123 [0] Ricky [1] Nakor [0] helmet [0] monker59 [5] awsomeness122 [5] Norwegian [0] trey [0] Engesa Green [0] Gesh [0] mrmrmr8
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