Nakor
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Post by Nakor on Apr 14, 2010 13:40:09 GMT -5
Easy enough I figure. If you want to test the accuracy of astrology, pick a bunch of your friends and family members (and don't tell them) and look up information on what their horoscope should be. (Of course, make sure you don't go giving out their private information in the process of doing this test! Alternatively, you could tell them you're doing the test and ask permission to do so for more specific data, and merely not tell them what the horoscope was.)
Once you have the horoscopes, just put them away somewhere safe until enough time has passed that they should be verifiable (so if you got monthly horoscopes, wait until the month in question is over) and then go back and compare what happened in their lives to what the horoscopes said. Remember to consider the conciseness of the horoscope; "you'll have a good month" is both vague and opinionated, while "you'll receive a windfall of cash in the second week of the month" is relatively concise and factual. A horoscope has a 50/50 shot at "a good month" coming true -- probably better, since more people are likely to say a month was good than bad on average. The odds of being right about a large, sudden income of cash are much lower.
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Post by bunnyfulwanderer on Apr 14, 2010 14:29:14 GMT -5
Well I always thought of it like any time-travel movie you've seen. the future you forsee is basically the future if you were to be on autopilot, no epiphanies or attempts to alter your general behavior. Basically what is likely to happen right now a major behavioral change can change the future (afterall it's in the future, so all the power to change it exists in you) If that is the only obstacle to measuring astrology's accuracy, we could take horoscopes for people without actually revealing them to those people. We could then determine if the horoscope is accurate without the person being able to act on the knowledge of it and thereby invalidate it. well. it's not just acting on knowledge I would assume. sometimes fortunes collide I would figure. but I've played the devils advocate far too much in this thread xD
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Nakor
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Post by Nakor on Apr 14, 2010 15:29:41 GMT -5
lol. I would have to conclude that failure to predict that is a failure on part of Astrology. It attempts to predict human interactions and events, and cannot do so without considering interaction.
It can basically go three ways:
1) Astrology tries to predict the future, and successfully does so. This would be measurable. 2) Astrology tries to predict the future, and fails to do so. This would be measurable. 3) Astrology tries to predict one possible future, with no particular odds on whether it actually will happen or not. This is both immeasurable and utterly pointless.
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Post by quinn on Apr 18, 2010 6:22:50 GMT -5
Well overall I'm rather happy with how this has concluded ( if it has). Except for one thing about the moon cycles. I do not believe that our months are based on the cycles of the moon, in fact, I think it's just a happy coincidence.
Originally there were 10 months in the year (DEC meaning 10th OCT meaning 8th) which may leave some puzzled as to why SEPT (7th)ember is the 9th month and why December is the 12th. This, I believe, is explained either by the vanity of romans inserting their names into the year (Augustus and Julius) or I also heard that a period was inserted between January and February moving December forward. Either way the months original length was not that of the lunar cycle (29.5 days) and as 7 of our months still have 31 days, I find it difficult to accept the moon as a foundation for month length.
Possibly just being pedantic - Quinn
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Nakor
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Post by Nakor on Apr 18, 2010 16:40:00 GMT -5
Months (of varying terms) have been used by many cultures for a very long time. Initially it was simply referred to as "moons" by many of these cultures. The Egyptians were one of the early cultures who came up with a calendar month. However, it eventually became clear that the length of a moon's cycle doesn't divide well into a year, and so we have uneven months.
I know that "September" came from it being the seventh moon according to the Roman calendar. It's possible they started their calendar at a different point in the year than the Gregorian one, and that resulted in the rearrangement (not sure). I do know the Roman calendar used an extra month to realign itself once in a while (Mercedonius) which fell after February in their calendar. This occurred every two to three years (355 day years without it, and 377-378 day years with it). By having this extra month they could keep their calendar in line with the moon's cycles.
Rather than have calendars with entire extra months and vastly different lengths, the Gregorian calendar adopted the much simpler leap-year system we now have, and distributed the extra days amongst the other months. (How we ended up with a 28-day February I'm unaware. It would have made sense to have a couple fewer 31-day months and make February 30-day, but whatever.)
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FranticProdigy
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Post by FranticProdigy on Apr 20, 2010 21:46:24 GMT -5
So what are people's opinions on Astrology? You know, the alignment of the planets & stars at birth will have a profound effect on your 'destiny'. To me, it's complete nonsense. Discuss! It is complete nonsense. But that isn't all of what astrology is.
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RabbitWho
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Rebecca - How 'bout we all put or real names somewhere in our signatures or titles? [SKB:]
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Post by RabbitWho on Apr 22, 2010 6:50:48 GMT -5
Science actually debunked the moon's apparent effect on the water in our bodies. The amount of water is too small for the moon to have effect, and moreover it's not like we're a container with pure water -- when they say we're made of a lot of water, that water is in cells, in blood and so forth. Moreover if menstrual cycles were based on the moon, one would expect them to be patterned to it, but they're not. While the length is roughly the same as a cycle of the moon for the average woman, they begin and end all throughout the moon's cycle. You really feel that our Circadian rhythms have nothing to do with the sun and the moon? Surely it's a proven fact that they have. Not every woman's menstrual cycle starts on exactly for instance the day of the new moon but the average cycle is 28 days and it takes 27.3 days for the moon to circle the earth. So for most of us the moon is in the same state when we are having our period. Of course pheromones and stress and other stuff effects which chemicals are getting produced in our body and when.. but once a moon cycle is the natural state of it. Okay maybe it's a coincidence. But the moon controls the tides, and i've lived close enough to the sea for most of my life to feel that this is significant.
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Nakor
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Post by Nakor on Apr 22, 2010 18:12:00 GMT -5
The moon controls the tides of the ocean because the ocean is massive. The more massive something is, the greater the effect gravity has on it (and the greater its gravitational effect on other things). People are not massive; compared to the moon, we're insignificant.
Or let me put it this way. The moon has a mass of 7.3477×10^22 kg (we'll call this m₁). We'll use, say an 80kg person (m₂). At its closest point during orbit, the moon comes withing 363,104,000m of Earth (r). The last number we need is the gravitational constant (G): 6.67 × 10^(-11) N.m2/kg2. F is force in Newtons.
The equation to determine the force on an object due to gravity from another object is: F=Gm₁m₂/r²
Force is measured in Newtons, mass in kilograms, distance in metres.
F=(6.67×10^(-11)) * 80 * (7.3477×10^22) / (363104000)² And to save myself work I'll plug that into Python and get... F=0.00297N (approx.)
Now, most people don't get Newtons well, so let's convert that into pounds.
0.00297N = 0.000667lbs (approx.)
So the moon's force on an person who weighs 80kg is approximately 0.000667lbs, something around the weight of 10-15 grains of sand. Moreover that force is spread evenly across the entire body, not just one spot. This is clearly not enough force to have an impact in our lives.
And menstrual cycles vary anywhere from 20-40 days or so. If it were truly due to the moon's effects then there wouldn't be a large amount of difference, and there wouldn't be so many women not on the exact 27-28 day cycle. Moreover, other animals' reproductive cycles (either menstrual or estrous, depending on the critter) are all over the chart, often much, much longer than humans'.
The sun's effects are obvious of course, and naturally our daily (Circadian) rhythm is based on that. But that is due to the energy it directs at the Earth in the form of heat, light and so forth, not because of any gravitational effects or mysticism that could also be associated with the moon.
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Post by Adrian (123easyway) on Apr 24, 2010 14:51:36 GMT -5
Don't care if it's right or wrong, it's pretty groovy
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RabbitWho
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Rebecca - How 'bout we all put or real names somewhere in our signatures or titles? [SKB:]
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Post by RabbitWho on Apr 24, 2010 15:31:57 GMT -5
The moon controls the tides of the ocean because the ocean is massive. The more massive something is, the greater the effect gravity has on it (and the greater its gravitational effect on other things). People are not massive; compared to the moon, we're insignificant. Or let me put it this way. The moon has a mass of 7.3477×10^22 kg (we'll call this m₁). We'll use, say an 80kg person (m₂). At its closest point during orbit, the moon comes withing 363,104,000m of Earth (r). The last number we need is the gravitational constant (G): 6.67 × 10^(-11) N.m2/kg2. F is force in Newtons. The equation to determine the force on an object due to gravity from another object is: F=Gm₁m₂/r² Force is measured in Newtons, mass in kilograms, distance in metres. F=(6.67×10^(-11)) * 80 * (7.3477×10^22) / (363104000)² And to save myself work I'll plug that into Python and get... F=0.00297N (approx.) Now, most people don't get Newtons well, so let's convert that into pounds. 0.00297N = 0.000667lbs (approx.) So the moon's force on an person who weighs 80kg is approximately 0.000667lbs, something around the weight of 10-15 grains of sand. Moreover that force is spread evenly across the entire body, not just one spot. This is clearly not enough force to have an impact in our lives. And menstrual cycles vary anywhere from 20-40 days or so. If it were truly due to the moon's effects then there wouldn't be a large amount of difference, and there wouldn't be so many women not on the exact 27-28 day cycle. Moreover, other animals' reproductive cycles (either menstrual or estrous, depending on the critter) are all over the chart, often much, much longer than humans'. The sun's effects are obvious of course, and naturally our daily (Circadian) rhythm is based on that. But that is due to the energy it directs at the Earth in the form of heat, light and so forth, not because of any gravitational effects or mysticism that could also be associated with the moon. well professor i'm so glad you've got it all figured out, now if you could just find a way to fix the hole in the boat... P.s. whats a lbs?
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Nakor
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Post by Nakor on Apr 24, 2010 19:57:20 GMT -5
Lbs is the shorthand for pounds mass. 5lbs means 5 pounds. Not sure if pounds force uses a different shorthand, not that familiar with the imperial system.
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RabbitWho
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Rebecca - How 'bout we all put or real names somewhere in our signatures or titles? [SKB:]
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Post by RabbitWho on Apr 25, 2010 10:11:53 GMT -5
Oh... kay.... so like.. half a kilogram
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Nakor
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Post by Nakor on Apr 25, 2010 16:18:18 GMT -5
Like I said, the mass of 10-15 grains of sand. That's the only easy way to think about numbers that tiny.
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Post by GojuRyuKarateWolf on Apr 25, 2010 16:38:58 GMT -5
I don't necesarilly BELIEVE in Astrology...but what they say about my zodiac sign pretty much hits the bullseye, which is weird, that's why I'm just amazed by Astrology.
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